The short answer: Black Friday promotions can help growth when they have a clear job to do, such as recruiting new customers or clearing stock, and when the margin maths works. They hide a problem when discounting becomes the default way to hit a number. Before deciding how deep to go, ask a simpler question: if the offer disappeared tomorrow, would customers still choose you?
Black Friday is now less than a month away, and for many consumer brands the question isn’t whether to discount but how deep to go. Before deciding, it’s worth looking at what the latest research says about promotions.
Brands spend twice as much on promotions as advertising
New research from Les Binet and Dom Boyd, presented at the IPA Effectiveness Conference in October 2026, found that brands are spending around twice as much on price promotions as they spend on paid media advertising. Yet 75% of the marketers surveyed said they couldn’t estimate what proportion of their promotions were actually profitable.
The survey of 250 marketing and insight leaders in UK consumer goods businesses also found that 81% evaluate promotions over periods of less than 13 weeks. That is long enough to see the sales spike, but too short to see what happens afterwards: customers waiting for the next deal, sales pulled forward from future months, or a weaker sense of what the brand is worth.
When I read it, the stat surprised me. Promotions have quietly become one of the biggest marketing investments many brands make, and one of the least measured.
I’m not anti-promotion
Used well, promotions do a useful job. They can:
- recruit new customers who wouldn’t otherwise try you
- support a launch or a new range
- clear stock before a product change
- create genuine urgency around a moment that matters to your customers
The problem comes when discounting becomes the default growth lever: the thing you reach for every time a month looks soft.
The maths most promotions ignore
Discounts cost more than they appear to. Take a product with a 60% gross margin. A 20% discount reduces the profit on each sale by a third, so you need to sell 50% more units just to make the same profit as before. Add Black Friday’s higher return rates, extra delivery costs and the paid media needed to be heard in a crowded week, and many promotions that look successful on revenue lose money in reality.
Smaller businesses are increasingly noticing. A survey by the British Independent Retailers Association found that fewer of its members planned to take part in Black Friday than the year before, with many citing the effect of discounting on profitability.
What heavy discounting can do to a brand
The risk isn’t only financial. Regular, deep discounts can teach customers that your full price is negotiable, and that it pays to wait. For premium brands especially, that slowly erodes the very thing that justifies the price.
Mark Ritson makes the point that Black Friday is a special case. Because everyone expects discounts that week, the damage to any single brand is lessened. That’s fair, but it’s an argument for treating Black Friday as a contained moment, not a habit that spreads across the year.
Five questions to ask before you discount
- Is the proposition strong enough? If you need a discount to sell, the issue may be the offer, the message or the product, not the price.
- Would people still buy if the offer disappeared? If most Black Friday customers would have bought anyway, you’re giving away margin. (See how many customers would have bought anyway for the maths and how to measure it.)
- Are we backing the right products, channels and customers? Discount the products that recruit new customers, not the bestsellers loyal customers already buy at full price.
- How will we measure it beyond the next few weeks? Look at profit, not revenue, and track what happens over the following three to six months.
- What else could the money do? Binet and Boyd’s research suggests some of the budget spent on loss-making promotions could work harder in brand building.
Alternatives to a straight discount
If you want to take part without damaging margin or brand, consider:
- value-adds instead of price cuts, such as a free accessory, extended warranty or gift wrapping
- early or exclusive access for newsletter subscribers or existing customers
- bundles that raise the average order value
- a donation or “Green Friday” angle, if it genuinely fits your brand
- opting out, and saying so with confidence
The question that matters most
Before adding more activity this November, it’s worth understanding what’s actually creating profitable growth. Sometimes the answer is more investment. Sometimes it’s doing less, but doing it much better. And sometimes the simplest question is the most useful: if the promotion stopped tomorrow, would customers still choose you?
If you’d like a second pair of eyes on your promotional plans or your wider marketing mix, book a free 30-minute introductory call, or read what a marketing audit should cover.
Sources: Marketing Week: Brands spend twice as much on price promotions as paid media · WARC: Promotions dominate marketing spend but with a profit blind spot · IPA: Kicking the promotion habit · The Drum: Mark Ritson on Black Friday · Fibre2Fashion: UK independent retailers reject Black Friday discounting (Bira)
Frequently asked questions
Should small brands take part in Black Friday?
Only if it serves a clear purpose, such as recruiting new customers or clearing stock, and you've checked the margin maths. Many independent brands now opt out or offer value-adds instead.
How much extra do I need to sell to cover a discount?
With a 60% margin, a 20% discount means selling 50% more units just to make the same profit. The lower your margin, the more you need to sell.
How should I measure whether a promotion worked?
Measure profit rather than revenue, compare against what you'd have sold anyway, and look at repeat purchases and full-price sales over the following three to six months.
